Former Aide Baba-Ahmed Warns Tinubu Risks Historical Condemnation, Calls Out El-Rufai's Conduct
Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, once a political adviser to both President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima, has issued stark warnings about Nigeria's political trajectory, criticising presidential leadership while cautioning former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai against escalating political tensions.
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A former insider to Nigeria's political elite has broken ranks with dramatic warnings about the country's leadership crisis. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, who served as Special Adviser on Political Matters to President Bola Tinubu and later worked with Vice President Kashim Shettima, delivered scathing assessments this week that signal deepening fractures within the ruling All Progressives Congress.
The most pointed criticism targeted Tinubu directly. According to Business Day, Baba-Ahmed warned that the president "risks 'worst president' tag if re-elected in 2027," a remarkable public rebuke from someone who once occupied the inner circle of presidential decision-making. The statement represents more than personal grievance; it reflects a broader disillusionment among political operatives who helped engineer Tinubu's 2023 electoral victory but now watch his administration struggle with economic turmoil and governance challenges.
The Weight of Historical Judgment
Baba-Ahmed's warning carries particular weight given his proximity to power. Former advisers rarely speak with such candour about sitting presidents they once served, especially in Nigeria's political culture where loyalty often trumps principle. His willingness to forecast historical condemnation suggests either profound disappointment or calculated political repositioning ahead of the 2027 electoral cycle.
The timing matters. Tinubu's presidency, now approaching its second year, has been defined by controversial economic reforms including fuel subsidy removal and currency devaluation. These policies have triggered inflation rates exceeding 30 percent and sparked widespread hardship. While the administration argues these measures represent necessary bitter medicine, public patience wears thin. Baba-Ahmed's intervention taps into this mounting frustration, framing the 2027 election not as a referendum on policy details but on Tinubu's place in the nation's historical ledger.
The notion that a second term would cement "worst president" status implies Baba-Ahmed believes the damage already done may be irreversible, but that continued tenure would transform failure into catastrophe. This represents a calculated escalation in political rhetoric, moving beyond policy disagreement into questions of legacy and competence.
El-Rufai and the Politics of Restraint
Baba-Ahmed's second intervention addressed Nasir El-Rufai, the former Kaduna State governor whose combative political style has defined his career. According to Legit.ng, Baba-Ahmed "criticised Nasir El-Rufai's recent actions, urging restraint and warning that the political climate is unforgiving." The specific actions referenced remain unclear, but El-Rufai has maintained a conspicuous public presence despite failing to secure ministerial appointment following Tinubu's inauguration.
El-Rufai's case presents its own complexities. His ministerial nomination was withdrawn after the Senate declined to confirm him, reportedly over security concerns related to his Kaduna governorship. Since then, he has oscillated between public silence and pointed commentary, behaviour that some interpret as positioning for future political moves. Baba-Ahmed's call for restraint suggests concern that El-Rufai's actions could inflame already tense political dynamics or damage relationships that might prove valuable later.
The warning about an "unforgiving" political climate speaks to Nigeria's current volatility. Economic hardship has shortened public tolerance for political theatre, while social media amplifies every misstep. Politicians accustomed to operating with impunity now find their words and actions scrutinised with unprecedented intensity. Baba-Ahmed's counsel to El-Rufai reflects this new reality where political capital depletes rapidly and rehabilitation grows difficult.
Fractures in the Ruling Coalition
Taken together, Baba-Ahmed's dual interventions reveal stress fractures within the APC's governing coalition. His trajectory—from Tinubu adviser to Shettima aide to public critic—maps the disintegration of the political consensus that delivered the 2023 victory. That he feels empowered to issue such warnings suggests either that he speaks for a broader faction within the party or that he has concluded his political future lies outside the current power structure.
The substance of his criticisms matters less than their existence. In Nigerian politics, public dissent from former insiders typically signals one of two conditions: either the dissident has been cast out and seeks revenge, or they position themselves as reformers ahead of political realignment. Baba-Ahmed's warnings about 2027 suggest the latter, an attempt to establish credentials as someone who saw the problems early and spoke truth to power.
For Tinubu, the challenge extends beyond managing one disgruntled former aide. Baba-Ahmed's criticisms articulate frustrations that simmer throughout the political class and the broader population. Economic reforms have imposed real costs while promised benefits remain distant. The president's health and frequent foreign travel have fueled speculation about his capacity for the office. Opposition parties, though fragmented, sense opportunity.
The 2027 election timeline that Baba-Ahmed invokes remains distant but approaches faster than it appears. Nigerian political cycles begin early, with positioning and alliance-building starting years before voting. His warnings function as opening salvos in what promises to be a bitter contest, one where Tinubu's record will face relentless scrutiny and where former allies may prove the most effective critics.
Whether Baba-Ahmed's prophecy of historical condemnation proves accurate depends on variables beyond any single politician's control—global economic conditions, security developments, the opposition's coherence. But his willingness to make such predictions publicly marks a threshold crossed, a former insider declaring that the emperor's clothes look threadbare and that the nation deserves better.