El-Rufai's Political Standing Erodes as Internal Party Rifts Deepen in Nigeria's APC
Former Kaduna governor Nasir el-Rufai faces mounting political isolation within Nigeria's ruling party following public criticism of President Tinubu's administration, with revelations of past presidential selection disputes exposing long-standing internal tensions.
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Former Kaduna State governor Nasir el-Rufai's political fortunes have taken a dramatic turn following his recent public criticism of President Bola Tinubu's administration, exposing deepening fractures within Nigeria's ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and raising questions about the former governor's future influence in national politics.
In a television appearance two weeks ago, el-Rufai declared that Tinubu's administration "was gone," adding that "the grace of God would ensure that departure," according to The Nation Newspaper. The unprecedented public rebuke from a prominent party figure has triggered widespread speculation about el-Rufai's standing within the APC and his relationship with the current administration.
Historical Grievances Surface
The current tensions trace back to internal party dynamics during previous presidential selection processes. Vanguard News reported that an opinion poll commissioned during the party's candidate selection phase showed significant disparities in support among potential nominees. "While the opinion for Nuhu got 45 percent, El-Rufai got seven percent, and so on and so forth," a source familiar with the process revealed. "So, it was on that basis that Tinubu reached out to Nuhu and adopted him as a (presidential) candidate."
The revelation suggests that el-Rufai's current political isolation may stem partly from long-standing disappointments over his perceived standing within the party hierarchy. The source added that "the bad blood set in" following this episode, noting that "he never really got out of that disappointment." This context provides insight into the former governor's increasingly confrontational posture toward the current administration.
Pattern of Political Confrontation
El-Rufai's combative political style has defined his career for over two decades. Vanguard News traced his "reputation for confrontation" back nearly 23 years to July 2003, when President Olusegun Obasanjo nominated him as Minister of the Federal Capital Territory. Throughout his tenure as Kaduna governor from 2015 to 2023, el-Rufai maintained a reputation for taking hardline positions on security, religious tensions, and economic reforms that often generated controversy.
The former governor's current predicament reflects broader challenges facing Nigeria's ruling party as it navigates internal power dynamics while managing public dissatisfaction with economic conditions. His public criticism comes amid widespread concerns over inflation, currency devaluation, and the removal of fuel subsidies that have squeezed household budgets across the country.
Wider Party Dynamics
While el-Rufai's situation dominates headlines, other APC figures face their own political challenges. In Benue State, speculation has circulated about tensions between Senator George Akume, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, and state Governor Hyacinth Alia. However, Vanguard News characterized this narrative as occurring "in the often overheated arena of Nigerian politics—where speculation frequently substitutes for substance," suggesting that not all reported party conflicts reflect genuine political adversaries.
The distinction between substantive political disputes and manufactured controversies has become increasingly important as Nigeria approaches future electoral cycles. El-Rufai's case appears to represent genuine policy and personal disagreements rather than mere speculation, given his direct public statements challenging the administration's longevity.
Implications for Party Unity
The former governor's isolation carries implications for APC cohesion ahead of future elections. As a figure who once wielded considerable influence in northern politics and party strategy, el-Rufai's alienation could signal broader discontent within certain party factions. His ability to mobilize support in Kaduna State and the broader Northwest region previously made him a valuable party asset.
Political analysts note that the APC has historically managed internal disagreements through accommodation and power-sharing arrangements. El-Rufai's public break with this tradition by directly attacking the administration suggests either a calculation that he has little left to lose politically or confidence in support from disaffected party elements.
The coming months will test whether el-Rufai's gambit represents an isolated outburst from a marginalized figure or the beginning of more organized internal opposition to Tinubu's leadership. For now, his diminished standing serves as a cautionary tale about the risks of open confrontation within Nigeria's dominant political party, where loyalty often determines access to power and patronage more than policy positions or popular support.