Nigeria Launches Revenue Probe as Tinubu's Executive Order 9 Mandates Direct Oil Remittances
Federal Government initiates investigation into past revenue collections following Presidential directive requiring immediate remittance of oil proceeds to Treasury Single Account, as N58.18 trillion 2026 budget faces implementation hurdles.
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The Nigerian government has commenced investigations into historical revenue collection practices following President Bola Tinubu's signing of Executive Order 9, which mandates direct remittance of all oil and gas revenues to the Treasury Single Account (TSA), according to This Day newspaper. The directive requires full compliance from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), and other revenue-generating agencies.
The executive order represents the administration's most aggressive move yet to plug revenue leakages in the petroleum sector, which accounts for approximately 90 percent of Nigeria's foreign exchange earnings and over 50 percent of government revenue. The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) described the measure as "a bold step toward transparency in the oil and gas sector" that will "eliminate revenue leakages and enhance accountability," The Nation reported.
The timing of the revenue probe coincides with mounting concerns over the implementation of the N58.18 trillion 2026 Appropriation Bill, which Business Day characterizes as facing an "implementation crisis." The budget, unveiled by President Tinubu as "a bold fiscal blueprint," represents a 23.7 percent increase from the N47.03 trillion 2025 budget, but questions persist about the government's capacity to execute the spending plan amid persistent revenue collection challenges.
Nigeria's fiscal position has been strained by years of revenue underperformance, with the Federal Government's retained revenue reaching N12.33 trillion in 2025, representing just 62.4 percent of the N19.76 trillion target set by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and other collection agencies. The Central Bank of Nigeria's most recent data shows the fiscal deficit widened to 6.1 percent of GDP in 2025, above the 3 percent threshold recommended by the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
Executive Order 9 specifically targets the practice of revenue-generating agencies retaining portions of collected funds before remitting to the TSA, a system that has created opacity in government finances. According to This Day, the federal government is now demanding "full compliance" and conducting retrospective audits to determine the extent of revenue that may have been diverted or underreported in previous fiscal periods.
The petroleum sector reforms come as NNPC Ltd and Dangote Group announced a "renewed commitment to strategic collaboration" during high-level discussions at the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemical Complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos State, Vanguard News reported. The 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery, which commenced operations in 2025, is expected to reduce Nigeria's dependence on imported refined petroleum products, which cost the country $26.7 billion in 2024 according to National Bureau of Statistics data.
However, the fiscal reforms are unfolding against a backdrop of deteriorating living standards despite rising government revenues. This Day noted that "state revenues are swelling to unprecedented levels, with trillions of naira streaming into government coffers," yet "for millions of Nigerians, hardship is intensifying, and relief remains distant." Total Federation Account allocations to the three tiers of government reached N15.2 trillion in 2025, up 34.6 percent year-on-year, driven primarily by naira devaluation effects on oil revenue and increased non-oil tax collection.
The disconnect between rising revenues and persistent economic hardship reflects Nigeria's 34.8 percent inflation rate as of January 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, with food inflation at 41.2 percent. The World Bank projects Nigeria's GDP growth at 3.3 percent for 2026, below the 4.5 percent required to meaningfully reduce poverty given population growth of 2.6 percent annually.
The implementation challenges facing the N58.18 trillion budget include weak public financial management systems, low capital budget execution rates that averaged 58 percent over the past five years, and debt service costs projected to consume 42 percent of revenue in 2026. The Debt Management Office reports total public debt reached N142.3 trillion ($91.3 billion) as of September 2025, with debt-to-GDP ratio at 53.1 percent.
The success of Executive Order 9 will depend on enforcement mechanisms and the political will to prosecute non-compliance. Previous attempts to enforce TSA compliance, including the 2015 directive by former President Muhammadu Buhari, achieved initial success before weakening due to exemptions granted to various agencies. The current administration has not yet specified penalties for non-compliance or provided timelines for the historical revenue audit.
Market analysts view the revenue reforms as necessary but insufficient without broader fiscal discipline. "Direct remittance addresses one aspect of the revenue problem, but Nigeria also needs to tackle the expenditure side, particularly recurrent costs that consume 75 percent of the budget," stated a February 2026 report by Lagos-based investment firm Chapel Hill Denham. The Federal Government's personnel costs alone reached N9.1 trillion in 2025, up from N6.8 trillion in 2024.
The petroleum sector remains central to Nigeria's fiscal sustainability, with oil production averaging 1.42 million barrels per day in January 2026 according to OPEC secondary sources, below the 1.78 million bpd budget benchmark. Crude oil prices averaged $79.30 per barrel in the same period, slightly above the $75 budget assumption but volatile amid global economic uncertainty.
As the federal government proceeds with both the revenue probe and budget implementation, fiscal authorities face the dual challenge of maximizing collections while managing an economy where purchasing power has eroded significantly. The International Monetary Fund projects Nigeria's per capita GDP will decline in real terms for the third consecutive year in 2026, underscoring the urgency of translating fiscal reforms into tangible economic improvements for citizens.