Nigeria GDP Grows 4.07% in Q4 as MTN, NGX Group Post Record Earnings
Nigeria's economy expanded 4.07% in Q4 2025 driven by non-oil sector strength, while MTN Nigeria recorded N5.2 trillion revenue and NGX Group posted N15.6 billion profit, signaling improved macroeconomic stability.
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Nigeria's economy accelerated to 4.07% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, bolstered by robust non-oil sector performance, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The quarterly expansion contributed to full-year GDP growth of 3.87% for 2025, marking the strongest annual economic performance in recent years as macroeconomic reforms begin yielding measurable results.
Finance Minister Wale Edun characterized the performance as evidence of "strengthening macroeconomic stability," highlighting the economy's resilience amid global headwinds and domestic policy adjustments. The growth trajectory coincides with significant corporate earnings from major Nigerian firms, suggesting broadening economic momentum beyond headline GDP figures.
Corporate Earnings Reflect Economic Momentum
MTN Nigeria Communications Plc, the country's largest telecommunications operator, reported service revenue of N5.2 trillion for full-year 2025, cementing its position as Nigeria's biggest non-oil taxpayer. The telecommunications giant's performance underscores the expanding digital economy's contribution to national output, with subscriber growth and data consumption driving revenue expansion despite currency volatility throughout the year.
The Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) delivered exceptional financial results, posting profit before tax of N15.6 billion for FY 2025, supported by a 36% increase in core revenue to N22.9 billion. According to Nairametrics, operating profit surged 44.4% to N11.8 billion, driven by "strong investor activity, enhanced customer penetration and tighter cost discipline." The exchange operator declared a final dividend of N3.00 per share alongside a 1-for-3 bonus share issue, reflecting confidence in sustained market momentum.
NGX Group's total assets expanded significantly during the period, while the broader Nigerian equity market added N24.4 trillion in market capitalization over the final two months of 2025, according to This Day. The capital market rally coincided with naira appreciation against major currencies, creating favorable conditions for both domestic and foreign portfolio investors.
Non-Oil Sector Drives Growth Narrative
The Q4 GDP expansion was predominantly fueled by non-oil sectors, continuing a multi-quarter trend of diversification away from petroleum dependence. Services, agriculture, and telecommunications emerged as primary growth engines, with the information and communications technology subsector posting double-digit expansion rates. Manufacturing activity also contributed positively, though analysts note capacity utilization remains below optimal levels due to infrastructure constraints and elevated energy costs.
The Central Bank of Nigeria's monetary tightening cycle, which saw benchmark rates rise to combat inflation, appears to have stabilized price expectations without derailing growth momentum. Year-on-year inflation moderated in late 2025, though it remained elevated in absolute terms, pressuring household purchasing power and consumption patterns.
Currency stability emerged as a critical factor supporting business confidence and investment decisions. The naira sustained gains against the US dollar in Q4 2025, reducing import costs and easing pressure on companies with foreign currency obligations. This exchange rate stability, combined with improved foreign exchange liquidity in official markets, created more predictable operating conditions for multinational corporations and domestic firms with international supply chains.
Outlook and Structural Challenges
While the 3.87% full-year growth rate represents progress, economists emphasize Nigeria requires sustained GDP expansion above 6% annually to meaningfully reduce unemployment and absorb new labor market entrants. The population growth rate of approximately 2.6% means current economic gains translate to modest per-capita income improvements.
Corporate earnings strength from bellwether firms like MTN and NGX Group suggests private sector resilience, yet small and medium enterprises continue facing significant headwinds including limited credit access, infrastructure deficits, and regulatory complexity. The banking sector's lending to the real economy remains concentrated in large corporates, leaving financing gaps for smaller businesses that collectively employ the majority of Nigeria's workforce.
Fiscal dynamics present both opportunities and constraints for 2026 growth prospects. Government revenue collection improved in 2025, supported by tax administration reforms and higher non-oil revenues, yet debt servicing obligations continue consuming substantial portions of federal income. The 2026 budget projects optimistic growth assumptions that will require sustained policy consistency and accelerated infrastructure investment to materialize.
International financial institutions have revised Nigeria growth forecasts upward for 2026, contingent on continued reforms in foreign exchange management, fuel subsidy policies, and business environment improvements. The World Bank projects Nigeria could achieve 3.5-4.0% growth in 2026 if current policy trajectories persist, while the IMF emphasizes the importance of addressing structural bottlenecks in power supply and transportation networks to unlock higher potential growth rates.